Data as of · MSFT trades at $393.35 (+1.09% today) · Information Technology sector.
ML Forecast (5-day)
43% bearish
Probability of beating the S&P 500 over 5 trading days
Q-Score
13/100
Grade D — "Sell" composite of 140+ signals
Analyst Target
$532.50
4 targets · $480.00–$550.00 · implied +35.4%
Next Earnings
2026-07-29
imminent
The ML model scores MSFT on 51 live features, trained on 5,328 labeled outcomes and walk-forward validated. Biggest drivers of today's bearish call:
Across 4 price targets published in the last 90 days (latest 2026-07-09), the consensus for MICROSOFT CORP is $532.50 — spanning $480.00 on the low end to $550.00 on the high end.
Next-period consensus: EPS n/a (as of 2030-06-30).
StoQuant publishes its full walk-forward accuracy, updated daily. Current hit rates across all scored signals:
| Signal | Window | Hit rate | Avg return | Observations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamental Undervalue | 7d | 51.6% | +0.52% | 8,963 |
| Vc Intelligence | 7d | 50.0% | +0.60% | 16 |
| Insider Buying | 7d | 49.4% | +0.66% | 1,052 |
| Volume Spike | 7d | 49.4% | +0.25% | 6,072 |
See the full live track record → · How the model works
⚠ MICROSOFT CORP reports earnings on 2026-07-29 — expect elevated volatility and a forecast refresh right after the report.
Compare MSFT vs TSM head-to-head →
StoQuant's ML model estimates a 43% probability that MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT) outperforms the S&P 500 over the next 5 trading days — a bearish short-term signal. Wall Street's consensus 12-month price target is $532.50 from 4 analyst targets.
StoQuant's Q-Score rates MSFT 13/100 (grade D, "Sell") and the 5-day ML signal is bearish at 43% probability. StoQuant publishes its full walk-forward track record at /proof — always check a forecaster's accuracy before acting.
The consensus analyst price target for MICROSOFT CORP is $532.50, with a range of $480.00 to $550.00 across 4 recent analyst targets — an implied +35.4% move from the current price of $393.35.
Across StoQuant's walk-forward validated signal history, the fundamental undervalue signal hit its 7-day target in 51.6% of 8,963 observations (avg return +0.52%). Full methodology and live accuracy at /proof.
MICROSOFT CORP is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-07-29. Expect elevated forecast volatility around the report.
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Open the free screener Full MSFT researchForecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not investment advice. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Methodology.