Methodology: How the StoQuant Alpha Score Is Built

The StoQuant alpha score is a calibrated probability that a stock will outperform its sector over a defined forward horizon. It is constructed from 93 engineered features and a three-model stacking ensemble.

Nine alpha dimensions

  1. Valuation — P/E, P/B, PEG, EV/EBITDA, Graham intrinsic-value discount.
  2. Quality — ROE, ROIC, gross margin stability, Piotroski F-score.
  3. Momentum — 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month risk-adjusted returns.
  4. Growth — revenue, EPS, and FCF CAGR with stability penalties.
  5. Sentiment — credibility-weighted social signal (Reddit, StockTwits, Twitter) plus FinBERT on news and earnings calls.
  6. Macro — HMM regime probabilities, yield curve slope, credit spreads, FRED indicators.
  7. Alt-data — Google Trends, insider filings, institutional flow, options skew, short interest.
  8. Forensic — Beneish M-score, accrual ratios, cash-flow-to-earnings divergence.
  9. Cross-sectional — sector- and size-adjusted ranks on every above signal.

Model ensemble

Three gradient-boosted learners — LightGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost — are trained on disjoint time windows. A logistic-regression meta-learner stacks their out-of-fold predictions. Raw probabilities are calibrated with Venn-ABERS (Vovk, 2015) to produce conformal confidence intervals.

Validation protocol

Strict walk-forward: training window slides forward, no look-ahead, no peek at future targets. Transaction costs 0.1–0.5% per trade, slippage 1–2¢ on small-caps. Benchmark: Russell 2000 buy-and-hold. Out-of-sample results are appended — we never overwrite history.

Citations

Graham, Security Analysis (1934); Black & Litterman, Global Portfolio Optimization (1991); Vovk, Venn-Abers Predictors (2015); Loughran & McDonald, When Is a Liability Not a Liability? (2011).