The StoQuant alpha score is a calibrated probability that a stock will outperform its sector over a defined forward horizon. It is constructed from 93 engineered features and a three-model stacking ensemble.
Three gradient-boosted learners — LightGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost — are trained on disjoint time windows. A logistic-regression meta-learner stacks their out-of-fold predictions. Raw probabilities are calibrated with Venn-ABERS (Vovk, 2015) to produce conformal confidence intervals.
Strict walk-forward: training window slides forward, no look-ahead, no peek at future targets. Transaction costs 0.1–0.5% per trade, slippage 1–2¢ on small-caps. Benchmark: Russell 2000 buy-and-hold. Out-of-sample results are appended — we never overwrite history.
Graham, Security Analysis (1934); Black & Litterman, Global Portfolio Optimization (1991); Vovk, Venn-Abers Predictors (2015); Loughran & McDonald, When Is a Liability Not a Liability? (2011).