Data as of · Consumer Discretionary sector.
Forecast: StoQuant's ML model estimates a 22% probability that MCDONALDS CORP (MCD) outperforms the S&P 500 over the next 90 trading days — a bearish signal. Wall Street's consensus 12-month price target is $313.88 from 4 analyst targets.
ML Forecast (90-day)
22% bearish
Probability of beating the S&P 500 over the next 90 trading days
Q-Score
51/100
Grade C — "Hold" composite of 140+ signals
Analyst Target
$313.88
4 targets · $313.50–$315.00
Next Earnings
2026-11-04
in 52 days — expect volatility
The ML model scores MCD on 63 live features, trained on 5,328 labeled outcomes and walk-forward validated. Biggest drivers of today's bearish call:
Across 4 price targets published in the last 90 days (latest 2026-08-18), the consensus for MCDONALDS CORP is $313.88 — spanning $313.50 on the low end to $315.00 on the high end.
Next-period consensus: EPS n/a (as of 2030-12-31).
StoQuant publishes its full walk-forward accuracy, updated daily. Current hit rates across all scored signals:
| Signal | Window | Hit rate | Avg return | Observations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamental Undervalue | 7d | 51.1% | +0.50% | 9,340 |
| Vc Intelligence | 7d | 50.0% | +0.72% | 18 |
| Volume Spike | 7d | 49.1% | +0.23% | 6,275 |
| Sector Momentum | 7d | 48.5% | +0.02% | 16,414 |
See the full live track record → · How the model works
⚠ MCDONALDS CORP reports earnings on 2026-11-04 — expect elevated volatility and a forecast refresh right after the report.
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StoQuant's ML model estimates a 22% probability that MCDONALDS CORP (MCD) outperforms the S&P 500 over the next 90 trading days — a bearish signal. Wall Street's consensus 12-month price target is $313.88 from 4 analyst targets.
StoQuant's Q-Score rates MCD 51/100 (grade C, "Hold") and the 90-day ML signal is bearish at 22% probability. StoQuant publishes its full walk-forward track record at /proof — always check a forecaster's accuracy before acting.
The consensus analyst price target for MCDONALDS CORP is $313.88, with a range of $313.50 to $315.00 across 4 recent analyst targets.
Across StoQuant's walk-forward validated signal history, the fundamental undervalue signal hit its 7-day target in 51.1% of 9,340 observations (avg return +0.50%). Full methodology and live accuracy at /proof.
MCDONALDS CORP is scheduled to report earnings on 2026-11-04. Expect elevated forecast volatility around the report.
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